Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,088$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(207 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,074.3}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,074.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $77$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(92.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $548$ on 2020-05-02

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,817$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,970.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,970.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,762$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(139 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,766.4}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,766.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,855$ on 2020-05-02

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $209,328$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,773.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(205,773.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,710$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,270.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,270.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100,704$ on 2020-05-02

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,132,539$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,183,867.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,183,867.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $66,369$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70,885.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(70,885.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $890,788$ on 2020-05-02

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $183,500$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{194,670.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(194,670.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,205$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,174.6}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,174.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $154,399$ on 2020-05-02

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,082$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(996 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,608.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(26,608.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,669$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(125 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,042.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,042.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,408$ on 2020-05-02

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $164,967$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,253.7}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(160,253.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,812$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(486 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,241.5}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,241.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,155$ on 2020-05-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Iceland recovered 93%
Thailand recovered 88%
Korea, South recovered 82%
Australia recovered 82%
Austria recovered 81%
New Zealand recovered 78%
Burkina Faso recovered 77%
Malta recovered 76%
Switzerland recovered 73%
Taiwan* recovered 68%
Iran recovered 63%
Niger recovered 62%
Germany recovered 60%
Croatia recovered 56%
Andorra recovered 54%
Djibouti recovered 49%
Denmark recovered 47%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 44%
North Macedonia recovered 41%
Uzbekistan recovered 38%
Costa Rica recovered 37%
Israel recovered 35%
Malaysia recovered 33%
Spain recovered 27%
Czechia recovered 25%
Slovakia recovered 24%
Turkey recovered 22%
Cuba recovered 8%
Italy recovered 7%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,959$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,266.6}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,266.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,021.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 23.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,021.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $736$ on 2020-05-02

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,798$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(325 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.5}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 23.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $82$ on 2020-05-02

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,966$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(767 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,883.6}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 18.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,883.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(19.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.6}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 10.1)}}\) (asimptote \(53.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $180$ on 2020-05-02

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,793$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,280.0}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,280.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $250$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(49 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{257.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(257.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,360$ on 2020-05-02